Sea level rise
It is becoming apparent that the recent reports from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have grossly underestimated the likely amount of sea level rise that we can expect over the next century and beyond.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment put the expected sea level rise at 18 to 59 cm. However, this was based on very conservative assumptions, which are already being disproved by events such as the recent rapid decline in arctic sea ice extent and accelerating glacial melt and discharge in Greenland.
Dr Howden of the CSIRO recently stated that "The CSIRO also says the break-up of the Greenland ice shelf has significantly increased the rate of sea level rise around the Australian coastline ... projected rate of salt water inundation is alarming ... Current projections are for that to be upgraded to about 1.4 metres by the end of this century."
The rate of rise is predicted to accelerate over the course of the next century. The rate of rise is predicted to accelerate over the course of this century.
Source: Global Warming Art
For more details see :
- The Sea Level Rise page at Wikipedia.
- The State of the Cryosphere website.
- The Big Melt report by Carbon Equity. This report includes a summary of the situation by NASA climate scientist James Hansen. He argues that based on current observations of greenhouse gas emissions, and of glacial and sea ice melt rates, we are likely to see at least a metre of sea level rise over the next century and possibly up to 5 metres.
- The paper Climate change and trace gasses (2007) by James Hansen and others provides a detailed analysis of what recent climate reseach studies are telling us about the likelihood of rapid climate change and consequent impacts on sea level rise. The paper presents the case that there is a strong possibility of sea-level rise in the order of one to several metres per century during the next century and beyond.
In future, this page will include a discussion of the impacts of sea level rise on vulnerable coastal ecosystems.
Index map to interactive sea level inundation inundation maps.
Click the red rectangles on this map to open interactive sea level inundation maps of the most vulnerable low lying areas along the Otway and Bellarine Peninsular coasts. All maps can be zoomed and panned, and you can choose the level of inundation (up to 14 metres if you are feeling really apocalyptic). If you need a map to other areas along the coast, open one of these maps, zoom out, and pan over to your area of interest.
