Biological

Climate


Note: This website is under development.

When the site is complete, users will be able to add their own content. If you would like to write a page now, or contribute a photo, artwork or sound recording, please email the site developer

Sea level rise map - Apollo Bay and the Barham Estuary

Predictions of sea level rise are of particular interest to the residents of Apollo Bay because a controversial housing and golf course development is proposed for the flood-prone Barham Estuary Flats.

The developers have based their plans on the assumption that sea level rise by the end of the century will be 0.6m and have added a 10cm safety margin to that.

However Dr Howden of the CSIRO recently stated that "The CSIRO also says the break-up of the Greenland ice shelf has significantly increased the rate of sea level rise around the Australian coastline ... projected rate of salt water inundation is alarming ... Current projections are for that to be upgraded to about 1.4 metres by the end of this century."

See the main Sea level rise page for more information.

Fig 1 - Predicted inundation levels from 1m sea level rise (this will be very slow to load if you have a slow internet connection)

Note: The data for this map comes from NASA, and the elevation data appears to be at a rather course scale. This leads to a degree of error in the inundation estimates. Use the maps as a rough guide to inundation threats only. No responsibilities for inaccuracies is accepted by the authors of this website.

The Great Ocean Green gulf course and housing proposal

Image 1 - The Barham River Flats now

Satelite image of the Barham flats


Image 2- The Barham River Flats as they will appear after the 'Great Ocean Green' development is built (source - the Great Ocean green website)

The Barham River Flats as they will appear after the Great Ocean Green developoment is completed


Image 3 - Barham River flats in flood (Photo by Ron Beecroft, Nov 2007)

Arial photo - Barham River flats in flood


Fig 2: Historical sea level rise (gloabl average). The rate of rise is predicted to accelerate over the course of this century.

plot - sea level rise data

Source: Global Warming Art

Exact details of the proposal are not yet available. However the following images from the Great Ocean Green website provide an indication of the extent of the development. The construction shown in image 2 below includes both an 18 hole gulf course and 500 dwellings. The flood risk due to sea level rise shown in figure 1 above does not take into account flood risk due to the flats being subject to inundation when the Barham River floods as occurred in Nov 2007 (image 3). That event submerged the flats under a metre of water. Consider what would happen with 1m sea level rise, combined with a large flood plus strong onshore winds.

Articles in the media about the development

South Australian Supreme Court rules that sea level rises are a valid reason to reject beachfront housing developments.

- The Australian newspaper, 13th March 2008

Colac Otway Shire calls by-election
- The Geelong Advertiser, 28th Dec 2007

Greens demand Environmental Effects Statement to assess Apollo Bay housing development
- Greens press release, 20th Nov 2007

Coastal board airs Apollo Bay development worries
- ABC News, 12th Nov 2007

Apollo Bay development critics seize on flood
- Geelong Advertiser, 6th Nov 2007

Bayside Brawl
- Geelong Advertiser, 5th Nov 2007

Flood plain development furore near Apollo Bay
- The Herald Sun, Nov 2nd 2007

Councillors walk out on meeting to vote on Apollo Bay development
- ABC News, Oct 27th 2007

Panel backs Apollo Bay expansion
- The Age, Jul 23rd 2007

Suburbia's trek down the Great Ocean Road
- The Age, Jan 12th, 2004

Other maps